NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Predictions and Picks for 8/25/26

Happy Tuesday! We’re back with NRFI and YRFI picks for August 25 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. I’m looking at two spots where the early offense should show up, then finishing with a pair of exciting arms who can keep the scoreboard clean in the first inning.

The Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Tuesday, August 25

• YRFI: Astros at Yankees -125 (Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)
• YRFI: Royals at Blue Jays -115 (Rogers Centre – 7:07 p.m. ET)
• NRFI: Guardians at Angels -160 (Angel Stadium – 9:38 p.m. ET)

8/25 YRFI Pick: Astros at Yankees

• THE PICK: Astros-Yankees – Yes Run 1st Inning (-125)

We’ll start in the Bronx as the Yankees host the Astros at 7:05 p.m. ET. Will Warren gets the ball for New York against Houston rookie Ethan Pecko, who is making only his second career MLB start.

Honestly, that might be enough said right there. Pecko is heading into Yankee Stadium — one of the biggest stages in baseball — for his second Major League start, and he gets a New York lineup that has recently added Cody Bellinger back near the top of the order.

Trent Grisham has also been swinging a much better bat lately, so there are plenty of opportunities for the Yankees to poke one over the short porch in right field early.

On the other side, Warren is just a subpar starting pitcher. The Yankees have needed him with injuries piling up in the rotation, but the underlying profile is pretty ugly.

According to Baseball Savant, Warren ranks in just the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, sixth percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 16th percentile in expected batting average allowed.

I also think some strikeout regression could be coming. Both Warren’s chase rate and whiff rate sit substantially lower than his actual strikeout rate, and that usually catches up to a pitcher eventually. Lefties are hitting .272 against him this season, while righties are hitting .261, and he owns a pedestrian 4.40 ERA at home.

Houston ranks fourth in baseball in first-inning runs per game, which is exactly what we want to see in a bet that needs only one run between the two sides. An inexperienced rookie on one side, Warren’s shaky contact profile on the other, and a Yankees lineup getting healthier makes this a nice YRFI look.

YRFI Best Bet Today: Royals at Blue Jays

• THE PICK: Royals-Blue Jays – Yes Run 1st Inning (-115)

Next, we’ll head north of the border as the Blue Jays host the Royals at Rogers Centre at 7:07 p.m. ET. Max Scherzer takes the mound for Toronto opposite Seth Lugo, and neither starter looks particularly equipped to navigate the first inning cleanly right now.

Kansas City is not exactly lighting the world on fire, but it has been a solid lineup against right-handed pitching since July 1. The Royals rank 12th in weighted runs created plus during that stretch, which is encouraging against a 42-year-old Scherzer who has clearly hit a wall.

Scherzer owns a disgusting 7.40 ERA. He is in the fourth percentile in whiff rate and the eighth percentile in strikeout rate. While he has done a decent job of limiting hard contact, he does not keep the ball on the ground and gets barreled too often.

Left-handed hitters have continued to give him problems dating back to the beginning of 2025, and they are slugging .527 against him this season.

That brings Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Bobby Witt Jr. into the conversation.

The Royals have plenty of tough outs near the top and middle of the lineup, particularly for someone at this stage of Scherzer’s career. He has allowed 12 earned runs in 11 first innings this season, good for a 9.82 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. That is absolutely atrocious.

Lugo has not been much better. Not too long ago, he was a serviceable veteran journeyman, but the 36-year-old has hit the wall. He owns a 5.18 expected ERA, ranks no better than the fifth percentile in whiff rate or chase rate, and sits in just the 16th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.

Since the All-Star break, Lugo has a 5.09 ERA. His first-inning ERA sits at 5.88 this season after he allowed 31 hits and 17 earned runs across 26 opening frames, with opponents hitting .295 against him.

Toronto might not be a great power offense, but it owns baseball’s best strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since July 1, so there should be opportunities for hitters to put the ball in play and get on base.

This is a great YRFI setup, even without two explosive offenses. Both starting pitchers have struggled early, and both lineups have enough to do some damage.

August 25 NRFI Pick: Guardians at Angels

• THE PICK: Guardians-Angels – No Run 1st Inning (-160)

Finally, we’ll go to Angel Stadium as the Angels host the Guardians at 9:38 p.m. ET. Walbert Urena takes the ball for Los Angeles against Cleveland’s Gavin Williams, and I love both pitchers in this matchup.

Urena might be my favorite breakout player that nobody is talking about, probably because the Angels are oodles of games under .500 and never competitive. His 8-9 record will not catch your eye, but his 2.80 ERA absolutely should. He is striking out nearly a hitter per inning, and the advanced metrics are on board as well.

Urena owns a 3.32 expected ERA, which ranks in the 79th percentile, while his .200 expected batting average against is elite. He throws fireball fastballs with an average velocity north of 97 mph, does not get barreled, limits hard contact, and keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate. There is just so much to like about him.

I can say the same thing for Williams. It has been good to see him finally put it all together after a couple of seasons spent trying to find his footing. His 3.72 ERA is good enough, but the swing-and-miss profile is what really stands out.

Williams owns a strikeout rate north of 32%, while his whiff and chase rates both sit above the 80th percentile, per Baseball Savant. The Angels like to swing and miss, so I think Williams is in a great spot to pile up whiffs early.

Good luck Tuesday!

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