Unfortunately, things have gone against us here in the month of June. It hasn’t been a great month.
Last night was another frustrating one. The Red Sox are dead to me. They burned me big time. They beat the Yankees outright, and I can’t even make money on them. Team USA losing to Turkey wasn’t all that shocking. They were probably due for a rough one, but conceding in stoppage time for a 3-2 loss made it a tough result. The Phillies, meanwhile, rolled behind Christopher Sanchez for an easy winner.
We’ve got a lot of things flying around right now. I think we’re heading into one of those crazy couple of weeks where we’re going to be all over the place. Today, though, I’m primarily betting baseball. I’ve got two baseball plays, one soccer bet, and one future I want to give you.
Let’s get to the card.
White Sox to Win the American League (+2500)
I have a crazy bet I want to give you today. Before everyone freaks out, hear me out.
If the White Sox win the division, which I think is a pretty good possibility, they’re going to get favorable matchups in the postseason. As play begins today, they’re tied for first place with Cleveland. Both teams have nearly identical records and negative run differentials.
The White Sox are 26-13 at home but just 15-25 on the road. If they simply become a .500 team away from home, I think they win the division.
This isn’t about them being the No. 1 seed or getting a bye. It’s about value.
The American League isn’t exactly loaded. The Yankees are 48-32, Tampa Bay is 45-33, Chicago is 41-38, and Cleveland is 42-39. Those are the only four teams in the American League that are over .500.
At 25-1, I think the value is just too good.
The White Sox have a couple of good pitchers at the top of the rotation, and they may be active at the trade deadline looking to add another bat. We don’t even need them to win the pennant outright. If they get there, we have a 25-1 ticket that gives us a tremendous opportunity to hedge and make money on the other side.
I’ve bet on crazier things.
Pick: White Sox to Win the American League (+2500) (1 unit)
Orioles Moneyline (-135)
Let’s start with Trevor Rogers and the Orioles.
Rogers is just 4-7 with a 5.03 ERA overall, and for about a month and a half, Baltimore couldn’t win when he took the mound. But things have changed in June.
Over his last four starts, the Orioles are 2-2, and Rogers has allowed just six earned runs in 24 1/3 innings. That’s a 2.22 ERA for the month.
Washington counters with left-hander Andrew Alvarez. The Nationals have lost three of his last five starts, and while he’s pitched reasonably well on the road, I like the way Rogers has been throwing the ball lately.
Baltimore has dropped back-to-back games, but this is a good opportunity to even the series at home.
I’m going to take the Orioles on the moneyline.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-135) (1.35 units)
White Sox Moneyline (-135)
We’re going back to the White Sox.
Chicago has won two of its last three games against Cleveland, and now the Royals come to town.
The White Sox have been a completely different team at home, going 26-13, while Kansas City is just 15-26 on the road. Chicago is also 5-2 against the Royals this season.
Neither starting pitcher is all that great, but I like the way the White Sox have played at home. If I’m backing them to win the division and taking a shot on them to win the American League, I’m comfortable backing them here as well.
There is some rain in the forecast, so hopefully the game gets played, but I like Chicago to keep rolling at home.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-135) (1.35 units)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: France vs. Norway Over 3 Goals (-107)
The most anticipated game of the day is France vs. Norway.
This total opened at 2.5 goals before getting bet up to three, and is now 3.5 in some spots.
France is the better defensive side, but both teams have some of the best strikers in the world. I like France to win the tournament, but I also think they’re going to concede goals.
This has been the highest-scoring World Cup in history, averaging more than three goals per game. The weather has been warm and humid, and the attackers have consistently found ways to beat goalkeepers.
We haven’t really bet offense much in this tournament yet, but I think it’s time to start.
I’ll take Over 3 goals.
Pick: France vs. Norway Over 3 Goals (-107) (1.07 units)
Friday’s Betting Card
- White Sox to Win the American League (+2500) (1 unit)
- Orioles Moneyline (-135) (1.35 units)
- White Sox Moneyline (-135) (1.35 units)
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: France vs. Norway Over 3 Goals (-107) (1.07 units)
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