Welcome back to Hoops Tonight.

This is step one of our NBA Finals preview.

It’s going to be pretty straightforward – I’m going to give you guys the season series info, the series prices from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, and then we’ll talk a little bit about both ends of the floor.

Regular Season Series Recap

The season series finished 2-1 in favor of the Knicks.

Knicks Take the NBA Cup

We had the NBA Cup Championship first. The Spurs actually had a 12-point lead late in the third quarter of that one. The Knicks made five threes in the next five minutes, spanning the final two minutes of the third quarter and the early fourth quarter. That flipped the script on the lead and ended up putting the Knicks up five. Then they basically stiff-armed the Spurs from there.

This was also one of the games where the Knicks lit up the scoreboard against Wemby. The Knicks had a great offensive rating basically in every game, but most of it had to do with them having success against units that didn’t have Wemby on the floor in the other two games. In the Cup Championship game, the Knicks offense scored very effectively against Victor Wembanyama. Again, they did hold up better in the next two.

Spurs Strike Back at Home

The second game was a close Spurs win in San Antonio. Wemby goes for 31 in this game, but he leaves early with an injury. This was also the game that he was primarily guarded by OG Anunoby.

There’s been a lot of discussion about OG as a primary matchup for Wemby. I personally wouldn’t go that route. Not to say that you can’t do it from time to time during the series, especially in specific lineups, but I really like Anunoby as a matchup for Steph Castle.

The Knicks had an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter of this game after Wemby had left, and the Spurs came back to win without him. This was the Julian Champagnie game. He had 11 threes and a season-high 36 points against the Knicks.

That was a close Spurs win. The Knicks hit a garbage-time three late that cut it to two, but San Antonio was hovering around a five-point lead down the stretch.

Knicks Roll at MSG

The third game was in Madison Square Garden on March 1. This was probably the best game to watch in this matchup while prepping for the series because the lineups looked relatively similar to what they are today. The Spurs finally had moved Champagnie into the starting lineup in Barnes’ spot, and the Knicks had their typical starting five.

This is the game, if you’re a Knicks fan, that you’re looking at as the biggest piece of evidence that you can beat this team.

This was during a part of the season when the Spurs were killing everyone. In fact, this Knicks win was smack dab in the middle of a 17-game stretch where the Spurs won every single other game with the exception of this loss to the Knicks. They had won 11 in a row before the game and they won five in a row after. So, the Knicks rolled up and beat the heck out of a peaking San Antonio Spurs team.

The Spurs did jump out to an early lead in this one, but the Knicks basically kicked their ass wire-to-wire from the last few minutes of the first quarter all the way through to the finish line. They hit 17 threes. They turned the Spurs over 22 times for 24 points and ended up winning by 25.

Breaking Down the Numbers

Pulling up numbers and statistical evidence from this is complicated because the NBA Cup game exists in an entirely different filter system from most of the platforms I use. So I’m just going to give you big-picture data.

The main areas that the Knicks dominated this matchup: 54 made threes in the three games. They did an amazing job of moving the ball versus the loaded-up Spurs defense for clean looks at threes. They also dominated points off turnovers and fast-break points. A couple of those things are connected.

The points off turnovers, I think, have a lot to do with the Knicks’ size and how the Spurs guards – and Victor Wembanyama himself – struggled to turn the corner or gain an advantage against bigger, stronger players compared to the dynamic against the Thunder, where the guards were smaller.

The number of threes that they get and the fast-break points are tied together because there is a lot of funky stuff with the matchups in this series. Players are guarding different people on either end of the floor, which creates cross matches. Whenever there is an interchange from offense to defense or vice versa, there’s usually a guy who needs to go guard somebody on the other end of the floor because he was guarding somebody else on the previous possession.

Those cross matches are a big part of why the Spurs ended up giving up a lot of openings in transition off those interchanges. It just felt like they weren’t matched up a lot of the time.

That’s going to be a tricky thing to watch as the series progresses: how much those cross matches end up favoring the Knicks. They did have a substantial advantage in fast-break points, points off turnovers and, again, a huge advantage at the three-point line.

Knicks vs. Spurs Series Price at Hard Rock Bet

The Spurs are a -200 favorite at Hard Rock Bet. The Knicks are a +170 underdog.

I can tell you right now that I think the best value is easily on the Knicks at +170. I think this is an extremely close series – effectively a coin flip – and you’re getting nearly 2-1 odds on the Knicks side of this.

Even if you think the Spurs are going to win but it’ll be super close, I just don’t like that line as much as I do Knicks +170. I think that’s the value bet in this particular case.

New York’s Offensive Outlook

Let’s start with the Knicks on offense.

Starting with the initial matchups, the way it looked in that March 1 game – which is the closest thing we’re going to get to what it looks like in this coming playoff series – Victor Wembanyama started on Josh Hart. That caused some problems with KAT underneath the rim. Steph Castle guarded Karl-Anthony Towns. De’Aaron Fox guarded Jalen Brunson. Devin Vassell was on Mikal Bridges, and Julian Champagnie was on OG Anunoby. Several things about this look give the Spurs trouble.

For one, KAT has a massive size advantage against basically every Spurs rotation player outside of Wemby and Kornet. He had some success against Castle just catching and ripping, using his size to turn the corner against Castle with quick moves, quick decision-making and then the offensive glass.

This is where, especially when Wemby is coming closer to the level against Brunson in ball screens involving Hart, even if Wemby is just up at the foul line when the shot goes up, it creates this inside-seal dynamic where Towns has an opportunity to get good offensive rebounding position underneath the basket.

Starting KAT is just a funky matchup for them. He’s this big, physical forward who probably isn’t going to be guarded by Wemby, at least not to start the series, which means he’s going to be operating with physical advantages all over the floor against basically anybody who plays for this group.

One of the biggest things that stood out in the film was Brunson’s willingness to take and make drop coverage threes. In this case, mostly from Hart screens.

Wembanyama is guarding Hart and wants to roam back around the basket. So if Hart sets a good pick on Fox out front, and Wemby wants to hang back around the basket – or near the basket, call it the foul line, call it the semicircle, wherever he might be hanging back – it creates this opening for Brunson to take a three off the dribble against that deep drop.

Brunson is not a better basketball player than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That would be a foolish thing for any of us to think. But Brunson is actually, in many ways, the perfect example of why Shai needs to add a ton of versatility.

One of the reasons why I flat out expect Brunson to have a better series against the Spurs than Shai did is this specific dynamic. He will take and make pull-up threes against the drop coverage. In that March 1 game, I think he hit three or four of them. He will take those. He will work out of off-ball action. He will go off the ball and be a screener.

All the things that I’ve said Shai needs to add to his game, Brunson is kind of already doing.

Is Brunson going to be as impactful at the straight ISO game that Shai is arguably the best in the league at? No. But his versatile attack actually lines up really well with the way the Knicks want to attack this Spurs defense.

It creates this dynamic where Brunson can pretty cleanly step into these pull-up threes as long as Hart sets a good screen. If the guard chases over the top and stays attached to Brunson, Hart is wide open on the pop. As we saw in the Cavs series, Hart can have cold shooting games, but he can also get super hot and do a ton of damage.

If you stay attached to Brunson, Hart is open on the pop. And even if Brunson misses the pull-up three after a good screen, if Wemby is up around the foul line, it creates an offensive rebound advantage underneath the basket for all the Knicks players. That includes OG, Mikal Bridges and Towns. They’re all carrying size advantages into the equation after the shot goes up.

Lastly, all the cross matches make San Antonio vulnerable in transition.

When you have Wemby guarding Hart and Castle guarding KAT, but KAT is not the guy guarding Castle on the other end of the floor, it creates this dynamic where everyone is running around to a different body as things transition to defense. That ends up causing problems when a Knicks team is really good at moving the ball up the floor and finding that quick open man to attack early in the shot clock.

I think it’s going to be difficult for San Antonio to handle all the cross matching that takes place in this matchup.

The Spurs’ Potential Counters

One of the main dynamics we saw in the regular season was the Knicks’ ability to pull Wemby away from the rim because of their three-point shooting.

I wonder how much we’ll see Sean Sweeney counter this with that one-man zone concept. We saw this a lot in the early part of the Thunder series and it didn’t work super well. But I wonder if that’s something we’ll see the Spurs try: pre-switch anything involving a screener running up to go get Brunson open so that they can keep Wemby on that backline as much as possible.

That’s going to be an interesting part of the chess match.

In general, on the film, Brunson looks really comfortable against the Spurs guards. It’s a very different matchup. He’s low to the ground. It’s very herky-jerky. It’s a very different type of attack than the Shai’s, “I’m going to drive into your chest and push off and shoot tough contested fadeaways” style.

Not that Brunson doesn’t take tough contested shots. He certainly does. But Brunson’s attack is much more dependent on quickness, change of direction and change of pace. He’s lower to the ground. He has a legitimate quickness advantage versus a lot of the Spurs guards that I think is going to bode well for him in this matchup. On film, Brunson looked pretty comfortable getting to his spots.

A couple of last quick hitters before we move to the Spurs on offense:

Mohamed Diawara played quite a bit in the regular season matchup. He had a game where he took 13 threes, I think. I think that was the March game. We don’t know too many details about the Mitchell Robinson injury and just how effective he’s going to be. I wonder if, instead of going with Ariel Hukporti, they just go small and play more Diawara if Mitch is not able to be impactful. But I do think Mitch will end up playing.

The Knicks always have the option to go toward Landry Shamet for more shooting. For instance, if just leaving Hart open is working because Josh isn’t making shots, they can always go toward Landry and basically put the Spurs in the predicament of not really having somebody they can help off of.

I do think that we will see, at least at some point in the series, Wemby move over to KAT for the simple dynamic that KAT is having so many size advantages around the basket, and it gives Wemby a better chance to hang back. Then I think they would rotate to the pop. If KAT sets a pick-and-pop, Wemby would drop back to the basket, and then we’d see something similar to that one-man zone where they would rotate to KAT from the weak side and Wemby would naturally move toward whoever is in the weak-side corner.

Lastly, Jordan Clarkson had a big moment against the Spurs in the Cup Championship game this year. He hit a bunch of threes and made a bunch of plays in the fourth quarter. He hasn’t been in the rotation too much in this postseason run, but I’m curious to see if he ends up getting an opportunity to play in this series.

San Antonio’s Offensive Outlook

Let’s move to the Spurs on offense.

These initial matchups are what I think the Knicks should do. I’m not necessarily sure this is what they are going to do. This is what I would do, though, if I was coaching the Knicks for how to match up with the Spurs on offense.

I would put OG on Castle instead of deploying him on someone like Wembanyama.

There are a couple of specific reasons for that.

One, I actually think KAT does a really good job on Wemby. Foul trouble will be an interesting thing there. I think one of the biggest subplots of this series is Wembanyama’s ability to get KAT in foul trouble and force him to leave the floor.

But KAT, when he beats Wemby to spots and is physical with his hands, does a pretty good job of doing basically what Hartenstein did: using his strength and lower center of gravity to prevent Wemby from getting deep paint touches.

That’s the first part of it. I actually just like the KAT matchup on Wemby.

The second piece is that OG Anunoby is the perfect type of big, physical forward to neutralize the way Castle likes to drive the basketball. Castle is not a first-step quickness, light-you-up-with-speed type of guard. He’s very Jimmy Butler-esque in the way that he plays off two feet constantly and methodically works his way into the lane using his size and strength. OG can counter that because he is bigger and stronger.

I like that specific dynamic with OG on Castle and KAT on Wemby because not only do I think they both guard their matchups well, but it also gives them the ability to switch that action, especially with Castle’s sketchy three-point shot.

If KAT ends up on Castle on a switch, he can give space and basically force him to take a contested pull-up. Then you have OG on Wemby, where he can cause some problems by getting physical underneath him.

Brunson on Champagnie is something to file away because that’s where the Spurs will look to attack Brunson.

With Hart and Mikal, you could go with Hart on Vassell and Mikal on Fox. Mikal has typically guarded the speed guard for the other team. The one thing I would consider doing here, though, is putting Josh Hart on De’Aaron Fox so that you can switch the Wemby-Fox pick-and-roll.

If you put Hart on Vassell and Mikal on Fox, I think Mikal is going to be a little physically overwhelmed against Wemby in particular. I also think Castle is a little bit more capable of bullying a guy like Mikal than he is a guy like OG.

If Hart is capable of guarding Fox on an island one-on-one, then he could also switch those ball screens.

If OG, KAT and Hart are on Castle, Wemby and Fox, you just switch any ball screen involving those three guys. That gives you a better chance to shut down the roll-man attack that San Antonio uses so effectively.

The wrinkle there is: what if Fox gets KAT on him on a switch? Is he able to break him down off the bounce and create something?

Again, you’re in the Finals. These teams have really good offensive players. There’s no perfect defensive solution. But it’s something I would consider so that you have the ability to switch your big, physical wings onto Wemby regardless of where he’s at on the floor.

How San Antonio Can Attack Brunson

The most successful play type that the Spurs ran in this matchup was a cleared-side off-ball action where Wemby would start in the corner or on the wing, and Brunson’s man – usually Champagnie – would run over and set a screen for Wemby on the wing.

Yes, OG spent some time on Wemby in the regular season, but a lot of the reps were centers: Mitch or KAT. Those guys tend to struggle to navigate screens. And Brunson is not going to want to just switch onto Wemby.

The Spurs got a lot of good looks for Wemby just curling into 15-footers, curling into dunks down the lane, or taking a three when the defender went way under. Wemby got lots of good looks off this very simple action: starting on the left wing, having Brunson’s man set a pick, Brunson not wanting to help, and Wemby curling the action and looking to attack off the catch.

If Brunson does hang back in the lane and help or switch in any way, shape or form, that’s where Champagnie gets wide open slipping out of the screen.

That’s what I like when it comes to the other ways to attack Brunson: Champagnie slip screens, for example. Champagnie coming up to the ball handler – Fox, for example – setting a ghost screen and slipping out. If Brunson throws a hedge, you can hit Champagnie there and he can hit a three at the top of the key.

But one of the things I noticed in the film is that, in a lot of cases, Champagnie would struggle to actually set enough of a screen to get Brunson to help. He would either slip and Brunson wouldn’t hedge, or the defender would just fight through the Champagnie screen and they wouldn’t get any advantage there.

They tried a lot of those same double-drag pinch screens that we saw in the OKC series too, where Brunson would be involved, but the Knicks did a pretty good job of funneling it into a drop coverage look where they’re okay with a guy like Castle or Fox going into the lane and taking a contested 15-footer.

What I like about those wide screens – those off-ball screens for Wemby – is that it gets your best player the ball in a clear situation of advantage, in space, to catch and be aggressive. It is so much harder to protect Brunson in that specific situation.

Fox is one of the biggest keys of the series simply because the other guards struggle against the Knicks’ perimeter size. Dylan Harper and Castle both try to overpower players a lot, and that’s difficult to do against a Knicks team that is so big on the perimeter.

Fox is going to be one of the big keys of the series. A lot of the best stretches of offense for the Spurs in the regular season started with Fox getting good dribble penetration against that Knicks defense.

This series will put a much higher emphasis on Wemby’s scoring because the guards don’t have as much of an advantage like they did in the last round. Wemby is going to have to be the guy who provides more volume scoring in this matchup. I think in order for them to win the series, he’s going to have to be up around 27 or 28 points per game.

Wemby was turnover-prone in the regular season against this team, mainly because they stonewalled his drives. Whenever he would look to drive, they would get physical with him and flatten him out. They would sink in with OG or Mikal and start digging down at the basketball, and he had some big turnover issues.

Wemby’s offense is going to get a pretty tough evaluation in this series. He’s going to have to do some problem-solving against a team that’s more physically set up to handle him.

OG ranging off Castle in help is another big piece. Castle did not shoot well in the OKC series. OG is one of the best help defenders in the league. He functions as a secondary rim protector behind Karl-Anthony Towns. There’s a lot of emphasis on Castle making OG pay by knocking down the wide-open catch-and-shoot threes that result from OG helping at the rim.

Again, I think the Spurs offense is really going to come down to how well they attack Brunson and the different actions in which they do it. I think those wide screens for Wemby are the best way.

Then it comes down to Fox and Wembanyama, because I just don’t think this is going to be a Castle or Harper series necessarily. Dylan Harper more so than Steph – I think Dylan will have some moments – but I think Steph is going to have a rough series. It’s just a tough matchup for him.

That puts a heavier emphasis on Fox and Wemby to be able to score.

Jason Timpf’s NBA Finals Prediction

I thought I would come in this morning leaning slightly toward the Spurs. That was how I was feeling when I was talking with Colin yesterday. But after watching more film and really digging in, I actually lean slightly toward the Knicks.

It’s very close. I have it literally 55-45, so as close to a coin flip as it can be. But I just think the Knicks have a team that is specifically built to give the Spurs issues on both ends of the floor.

They move the ball extremely well with quality play finishing against the defensive looks where the Spurs either try to load up or they roam with a guy like Wemby. They have the physical size and high defensive IQ to keep San Antonio’s guards in front and turn them into a jump-shooting team. All of that cross matching really opens up their transition attack.

And I just think Brunson will be far and away the most reliable offensive player in the series.

Again, Shai is a better player than Brunson, but Brunson’s diverse attack and quickness is a better matchup for the way the Spurs like to guard.

I’m picking the Knicks to win this series in six games, but it’s very, very close to me. Again, 55-45. I would not be the slightest bit surprised if San Antonio ended up winning.

And if you’re looking for betting value, I think the Knicks at +170 makes the most sense because you’re getting nearly 2-1 odds for roughly a coin-flip series.

Welcome back to Hoops Tonight here at The Volume.

It’s time for our Eastern Conference Finals series preview between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks.

According to Hard Rock Bet, the Knicks enter the series as -260 favorites, while the Cavs sit at +210 underdogs.

Knicks-Cavs Regular Season Series Recap

The Knicks won two of the three regular season matchups, although both victories came before the trade deadline when Cleveland was dealing with injuries and looked very different as a team.

The Cavs won the post-deadline meeting in what was largely a shooting-variance game. Both teams attempted 27 catch-and-shoot threes, and the Knicks actually generated more unguarded looks – 11 compared to just six for Cleveland. The difference was simply conversion. New York shot 7-for-27 while the Cavs went 12-for-27, creating a 15-point swing that matched the final margin.

That said, Cleveland also outplayed the Knicks overall. They won the rebounding battle, committed six fewer turnovers, and generally looked sharper throughout the game. Both Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson struggled offensively, so it’s difficult to draw major conclusions from the result itself, but the matchup did reveal a lot schematically about how these teams defend one another.

Key Numbers From the Matchups

The Knicks posted a 112 offensive rating across the season series, while the Cavs finished at 113.

New York held a slight edge on the glass, grabbing 30% of their own misses compared to 26% for Cleveland. They also held small advantages in second-chance points and points off turnovers, while the Cavs generated slightly more fast-break scoring.

Interestingly, both teams averaged exactly 42.7 points in the paint per game. That relatively low number reflects how both defenses are structured. Both teams are comfortable loading up in the paint and forcing opposing offenses to rely on weak-side perimeter shooting.

How the Knicks Match Up Defensively

To begin the series, Jalen Brunson will likely defend either Dean Wade or Max Strus, depending on Cleveland’s starting lineup.

Wade operates primarily as a spot-up shooter, while Strus is much more active as a movement shooter. Brunson’s preferred coverage is to hedge and recover, but against movement shooters, that creates opportunities for slip-outs and pick-and-pop actions where Strus can quickly separate and generate open threes.

If Strus consistently punishes those coverages, the Knicks may eventually be forced into more switching.

The remaining matchups will likely look like this:

• Karl-Anthony Towns on Jarrett Allen
• OG Anunoby on Evan Mobley
• Mikal Bridges on Donovan Mitchell
• Josh Hart on James Harden

Bridges, in particular, has been outstanding defensively throughout the postseason and presents a serious challenge for Mitchell.

Cleveland’s Offensive Challenge: The Skip Pass

One of the more interesting things on film was New York’s drop coverage.

The Knicks are not bringing Towns all the way up to the level of the screen. Instead, they’re playing a softer drop, keeping him several feet back to prevent straight-line drives while also protecting against the roll man.

That changes where the openings are.

Against more aggressive defenses, the pocket pass becomes available early. Against New York’s softer coverage, the roll man is mostly taken away. Instead, the weak-side skip pass becomes the primary read.

That puts a lot of pressure on James Harden and Donovan Mitchell as playmakers.

For Harden specifically, it’s important to get him driving left whenever possible because it makes those skip passes much easier to deliver. Cleveland is going to create catch-and-shoot opportunities in this series, but their guards must consistently make the right reads against New York’s loaded-up pick-and-roll coverages.

Evan Mobley and the Inverted Screen Actions

Josh Hart has done an excellent job throughout the postseason defending bigger forwards by getting underneath them physically and disrupting their balance. OG Anunoby presents a similar challenge.

Because of that, traditional Evan Mobley isolation possessions may not be especially effective in this matchup.

Where Mobley can create advantages is through inverted actions. If Cleveland uses Strus or Wade as screeners for Mobley, it forces Brunson into the action and creates opportunities for Mobley either to attack downhill or spray kick-out passes to shooters.

Those actions could become an important part of Cleveland’s offense.

Jarrett Allen’s Rebounding Advantage

One of the more important details from the regular season film involved Cleveland’s offensive rebounding opportunities after switches.

If Towns gets switched onto Mobley, Allen can end up sealed underneath against smaller defenders like Hart or OG. In those situations, Allen generated several deep offensive rebounding opportunities.

That makes transition cross-matches and Mobley-Allen screening actions particularly valuable for Cleveland. Allen simply has too much size against most Knicks defenders outside of Towns and Mitchell Robinson.

Transition Could Be Critical for Cleveland

The Cavs also found success by pushing the pace before the Knicks could properly organize defensively.

When Cleveland forced transition cross-matches, Brunson occasionally ended up defending Mitchell or Harden early in possessions. In those situations, he can’t hedge and recover – he has to stay attached directly to the ball handler.

That led to several quality scoring opportunities, including step-back jumpers from Harden and downhill attacks from Mitchell.

For Cleveland, pace matters.

How the Knicks Need to Attack Cleveland

The key for New York offensively is continuing to lean into the off-ball movement that carried them through the first two rounds.

If the Knicks rely too heavily on traditional Brunson pick-and-roll basketball, they risk playing directly into Cleveland’s strengths. Mobley and Allen provide elite layered rim protection, and both bigs are capable of surviving in space.

That’s why the off-ball action is so important.

Mitchell and Harden are capable on-ball defenders, but both can struggle with off-ball attentiveness. The Knicks can exploit that weakness by constantly forcing them through screening actions, slips, cuts, and switches.

With Towns spacing the floor from the perimeter, New York can create confusion and force defensive mistakes.

Karl-Anthony Towns’ Role in the Series

One of the biggest takeaways from the regular season film was simply how Towns physically matched up with Cleveland’s frontcourt.

It wasn’t perfect, but Towns clearly has the ability to push around both Mobley and Allen while also bringing a level of offensive skill neither defender regularly faces.

Cleveland’s best defensive setup likely involves one big pressuring Towns aggressively while the other roams off Hart as a help defender. But Towns is capable of punishing that pressure with drives, physicality, and perimeter shooting.

He’s going to be central to everything New York does offensively.

Mitchell Robinson’s Impact

Mitchell Robinson has consistently dominated Cleveland on the glass.

In two regular season games against the Cavs, he averaged 29 rebounds per 36 minutes, including 16 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes.

His presence also disrupts Cleveland’s high-low actions because he’s so effective sitting between Mobley and Allen, tipping away passes, and controlling space near the rim.

He’s been a problem for Cleveland for years, and he could easily become one of the defining players in this series.

Biggest Keys to the Series

• Catch-and-Shoot Three-Point Shooting: Both teams are going to load up defensively, putting enormous pressure on weak-side shooting. Hart and Mobley will likely be the players defenses are most willing to leave open. If one of those players shoots well while the other struggles, it could swing the series.
• Cleveland’s Defensive Focus: The Cavs cannot afford defensive lapses. New York’s offense is specifically designed to punish inattentive defenders with cuts, slips, and off-ball movement. Cleveland has to remain sharp defensively throughout the series.
• Late-Game Shot Creation: Eventually every playoff series comes down to star creation in close games. Mitchell and Harden versus Brunson could ultimately decide this matchup. Who creates cleaner shots? Who hunts better matchups? Who executes better under pressure? That battle may define the series.
• The Rebounding Battle: The Knicks have consistently won this matchup over the years, but Cleveland has rebounded extremely well throughout this postseason run. Winning the possession battle on the offensive glass will be critical for both teams.

Jason Timpf’s Cavs-Knicks ECF Prediction 

I’m picking the Knicks in six.

Right now, they simply look like the slightly better and more consistent basketball team.

They’re more reliable defensively on a possession-to-possession basis. Their perimeter defenders are stronger. Their weaker defenders have been less mistake-prone. And offensively, their movement-heavy system reduces the burden on Brunson to create everything himself.

That doesn’t mean Cleveland can’t win the series. The Cavs absolutely have a path.

But at the moment, the Knicks appear slightly better across most of the important areas, which is why the pick is New York in six.

We’re previewing Spurs-Thunder, and this is probably the series I’ve been most excited for in my time covering the league — maybe since the 2016 Western Conference Finals or NBA Finals.

It’s two of the clear best players in the world going against each other, with two extremely talented teams. Both have legitimate weaknesses the other can exploit. I view this as a coin flip. I don’t think either team has a clear, distinct, obvious advantage.

Spurs-Thunder Season Series Recap

The season series went dramatically toward San Antonio. They won 4-1, though I’d throw out the final game because Oklahoma City sat its guys. So call it 3-1.

The in-season tournament semifinal was OKC’s first real look at Victor Wembanyama, and they were completely overmatched. Every time Wemby went off the floor, the Thunder made runs. Every time he came back, San Antonio took control. The Spurs were plus-21 with him on the floor in a two-point win.

In the second matchup, Oklahoma City actually took a four-point lead in the third quarter before San Antonio blitzed them and pulled away. Then came the Christmas Day disaster for OKC. Wemby was on a minutes restriction and came off the bench, but once he checked in, the Spurs beat the brakes off them.

OKC’s lone real win came after Christmas, when the Spurs had hit a rough stretch. That game was competitive into the third quarter before Wemby banged knees with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, sat, and the Thunder blew it open.

The Numbers Behind SAS-OKC

In the regular season matchup, the Spurs had a plus-5.9 net rating and a 115.1 offensive rating. Oklahoma City had a 109.2 offensive rating.

San Antonio also won the margins. They grabbed 31% of their own misses compared to 27% for OKC. The Thunder, who forced 16.7 turnovers per game against the league, forced just 13.4 against the Spurs. Their points off turnovers dropped from 22 per game overall to just 14.6 in this matchup.

San Antonio was plus-2.6 in points off turnovers, plus-2.6 in second-chance points, and plus-three in fast-break points. The Spurs can hang with Oklahoma City athletically, and that showed up.

Spurs vs. Thunder Odds at Hard Rock Bet

All of our lines are provided by our partner, Hard Rock Bet.

Oklahoma City is the favorite at -260 to win the series. San Antonio is the underdog at +210.

I understand why the line looks that way. OKC is the defending champion, has arguably the best player in the world, and has the experience advantage.

But I think San Antonio at +210 is a great betting opportunity because I view this as a coin flip series. If one team is giving you better than 2-to-1 odds in a matchup I see as close to even, I like that value.

The Victor Wembanyama Problem

The big question is simple: how does Oklahoma City solve Victor Wembanyama?

The Thunder had a 99.6 offensive rating against Wemby-led groups in the regular season. That’s the same problem everyone has with him: he shuts down the basket.

OKC thrives on dribble penetration. Against teams like Phoenix and the Lakers, that forced defenses to send multiple bodies, which opened up kickouts and drop-off passes. With Wemby, San Antonio doesn’t have to send as much help. He covers so much ground that those kickouts aren’t as clean, and those midrange pull-ups are tougher.

Shai shot 57% on midrange jumpers against San Antonio this year, but the film showed a lot of really difficult looks, especially when Stephon Castle was pressuring him with Wemby behind the play. Castle can press up, be physical, and know he has elite help behind him.

How OKC Can Attack

Oklahoma City needs Shai to keep finding those midrange windows, but they may also need to get Castle switched off him through actions like double drag.

Isaiah Hartenstein’s Gortat screens could matter, too. There were moments where he sealed Wemby and opened up driving lanes. If Hartenstein can have more success there, it allows OKC to play bigger and more physically.

Chet Holmgren also has to score. He averaged just 10.5 points on 39% from the field and 20% from three in the regular season matchups. If he’s playing the five, he has to be the guy who spaces Wemby out.

Small-ball lineups could also be a key. On Christmas, Alex Caruso got wide-open “dare you” threes when Wemby helped at the rim. If Caruso hits enough of those, it changes the geometry.

San Antonio’s Offensive Pressure

On the other side, OKC can try guarding Wemby with wings like Jalen Williams or Caruso. They do okay, but there are possessions where they’re just physically overwhelmed.

That also creates another issue: it forces Chet to guard San Antonio’s perimeter players. Those guys are shooting it well. Julian Champagnie is at 45% from three in the playoffs, Devin Vassell is at 44%, and even if Vassell has struggled at times, he’s due to get hot based on the quality of looks he gets.

If Chet stays glued to shooters, the rim is open. If he helps, San Antonio gets clean threes.

The Swarming Question

OKC will swarm Wemby, and they have to do some of that to force turnovers. But it creates problems elsewhere.

There were plays where the entire Thunder defense loaded up on Wemby, and Stephon Castle, sitting weak-side corner, could cut in for offensive rebounds or open looks. That spacing geometry could be important for San Antonio.

I also wonder if OKC increases its ball pressure. They didn’t force many turnovers in the regular season matchup, and they lost the points-off-turnovers battle. But pressuring San Antonio’s guards also risks giving up early dribble penetration. That’s a real chess match for Mark Daigneault.

The Key Swing Factors

This series could come down to role-player shooting. If Alex Caruso shoots 45% from three and Steph Castle shoots 25%, that could determine the winner. If Castle shoots 45% and Caruso shoots 25%, that could determine it the other way.

Turnovers are another major factor, especially for Castle and Wemby. Both will get swarmed — Castle on drives, Wemby on posts, drives, and seals. If those turnovers spark OKC’s defense-to-transition game, that’s where the Thunder can score before Wemby gets back into the play.

Crunch time matters, too. De’Aaron Fox versus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is huge. Even though San Antonio won the regular season clutch numbers, if it’s a tied playoff game with three minutes left, I’d still bet on Shai.

And Chet’s scoring is a major swing factor. If he can score against Wemby and space him out, that changes the series.

Jason Timpf’s Spurs vs. Thunder Pick

• Spurs in six: +550

I think the Spurs steal Game 1, OKC gets Game 2, and San Antonio holds home court from there, winning Games 3, 4, and 6.

But to be clear, I view this as something like 55-45 in favor of San Antonio. Oklahoma City absolutely can win this series.

That’s why I like San Antonio at +210 on Hard Rock Bet. For a team I think has slightly better than a coin-flip chance to win, getting better than 2-to-1 odds is great value.

This is as excited as I’ve been for a playoff series in a long time. It should be legendary.

We’re continuing our second-round previews with the Los Angeles Lakers and the Oklahoma City Thunder—and I’m going to be upfront right away.

This season series? Thunder 4–0. And for the most part, it wasn’t competitive.

Aside from one game in L.A. where both Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat, Oklahoma City controlled this matchup from start to finish. Even when the Lakers were healthy in spots this year, the Thunder consistently overwhelmed them.

The Odds Tell the Story

According to Hard Rock Bet, the Thunder come into this series as massive favorites at -3000, while the Lakers sit at +1200 as underdogs.

That gap reflects exactly how this matchup has looked all season.

And I’ll be honest: I think the Thunder are going to sweep.

Why Oklahoma City Has the Edge Everywhere

When you break this down, the Thunder are simply better at everything that gave the Lakers problems in the previous round.

Their ball pressure is elite. Guys like Cason Wallace and Lu Dort are going to make life even more difficult for Austin Reaves and LeBron James than what they just saw. At the rim, Chet Holmgren is arguably one of the best defensive players in the league right now. Then you add Isaiah Hartenstein bringing physicality on the glass, and suddenly the Lakers are dealing with pressure at every level.

And offensively, it gets worse.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the world right now, and his ability to generate dribble penetration is a direct weakness for this Lakers defense. Jalen Williams has consistently had success in this matchup, especially attacking smaller defenders like Reaves.

Even beyond talent, it’s the details. The Thunder don’t make the same mistakes Houston did. They don’t turn the ball over. They punish open shots. They execute.

This is just a more disciplined, more complete team.

Respect Where It’s Due

To be clear, this isn’t about disliking the Thunder. I’ve had Oklahoma City as my number one title contender since the first month of the season.

From Sam Presti’s roster construction to Mark Daigneault’s coaching to the culture they’ve built—it’s one of the most impressive organizations in the league right now.

That’s exactly why this feels so one-sided.

If the Lakers Have Any Chance…

Now, a sweep prediction makes for a short conversation, so let’s at least talk through what it would take for the Lakers to keep this competitive.

At the highest level, it comes down to three things:

1. Survive the Ball Pressure

This is the “OKC test”—can you simply get the ball up the floor without turning it over?

Because if you can’t, you’re dead on arrival.

The Lakers had 47 turnovers in meaningful minutes against OKC this season. A lot of those were just simple ball-handling mistakes under pressure. Austin Reaves in particular struggled here—loose dribbles, overcomplicated moves, getting stripped.

Against this team, everything has to be tighter. Protected dribbles. Simpler decisions. Role players especially can’t try to do too much, because if your best ball handlers are struggling, everyone else will too.

2. Lean Into What Actually Works Offensively

When the Lakers did have success, it came down to a few specific actions:

• LeBron post-ups were by far their most reliable offense. He’s just too strong for OKC’s perimeter defenders, and playing out of the post reduces turnover risk. In one of their more competitive games, LeBron generated nine made field goals out of post actions alone.
• Austin Reaves as a scorer, not a playmaker under pressure, also worked. When he focused on attacking in isolation or coming off structured actions like double drag screens, he was able to get to his spots.

The key here is intentionality. The Lakers can’t freestyle against this defense. They have to deliberately get to the actions that work.

3. Find Any Defensive Answer

This is where things get really difficult.

The Lakers’ base defensive scheme—heavy help, gap coverage—plays right into Oklahoma City’s strengths. The Thunder shredded them with drive-and-kick offense all season, shooting absurd numbers on catch-and-shoot threes.

Maybe that regresses a bit. Maybe better closeouts help.

But realistically, there’s no clean fix.

One thing that did work? Zone defense. The Lakers held OKC to just 0.8 points per possession in zone looks during the regular season. That’s probably something they’ll lean on heavily, even though it creates rebounding issues, especially with Hartenstein crashing the glass.

The Only Real Path

If the Lakers are going to make this a series, it probably looks something like this:

• Limit turnovers and pass the OKC pressure test
• Spam LeBron post-ups and structured offense
• Mix in zone to disrupt rhythm
• Compete on the glass
• Steal one game in OKC

Then maybe, maybe, you get Luka back for Game 3 and things get interesting.

Jason Timpf’s Lakers vs. Thunder Pick

• Thunder in four: +120

The Thunder are just too complete, too disciplined, and too talented across the board.

I expect a sweep.

The only question is whether the Lakers can check enough of those boxes to make it interesting for a game or two.

Welcome back to Hoops Tonight here at The Volume.

We are continuing with our final series preview for the second round with the Cavaliers and the Pistons.

Let’s talk some basketball.

Cavs vs. Pistons Regular Season Recap

The season series was 2-2, and it’s important to note that it kind of felt like the Cavs were hunting this particular matchup with the way they managed Donovan Mitchell at the tail end of the season. They didn’t make a serious run for the No. 3 seed and seemed very content to sit at five and be prepared to face Detroit in the second round.

It easily could have been a 3-1 Cavs edge if not for a late-game foul on a half-court heave that sent one matchup to overtime. But the real takeaway from the season series is context.

Cleveland blew Detroit out early in the year. Detroit won a close game in January when Jarrett Allen didn’t play. Then the short-handed Cavs – without Mitchell or Harden – blew a nine-point lead late after the All-Star break, struggling badly with Detroit’s ball pressure. The final matchup was a Cavs win with Harden but no Mitchell.

The last two games were the most informative, specifically the Allen-Mobley defensive dynamic against Detroit.

Coin Flip Series

This is easily the closest playoff series on the board. Detroit is a slight favorite at -120, Cleveland sits at +100. That’s basically a coin flip.

After watching the film, I keep coming back to one thing: the bigs are the pivot point for this series.

Because the reality is, life is going to be hard on all of the primary ball handlers: Cade Cunningham, Donovan Mitchell, and James Harden.

Cleveland’s Defensive Advantage: Mobley Roaming

For Cade Cunningham, the likely starting matchup is Dean Wade. He’s a little slow-footed for the assignment, but he has the length to contest. And honestly, some dribble penetration is fine if you’re prepared behind it.

If I were Cleveland, I’d actually lean into that – force Cade into specific driving angles depending on where the help is, steering him into Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen at the rim.

That’s where the biggest advantage showed up on film: Evan Mobley roaming off Ausar Thompson.

Mobley freelancing around the paint as a help defender is right in his wheelhouse. That’s going to be a problem for Cade for large stretches of this series. Even if Cade has favorable on-ball matchups, he’s going to be dealing with size and rim protection constantly.

That dynamic alone shifted my view of the series closer to a true coin flip.

Detroit’s Defensive Game Plan

On the other side, Mitchell and Harden are going to be dealing with a relentless group of perimeter defenders – Ausar Thompson, Javonte Green, Caris LeVert – guys focused on forcing turnovers and making life difficult for two straight weeks.

If I were Detroit, I’d put Ausar Thompson on James Harden and play drop coverage with Jalen Duren in ball screens. The goal is to defend that action two-on-two and wear Harden down as a scorer over time.

He might hit some floaters early. He might win a few possessions. But over a large sample, that’s a matchup that favors Detroit.

For Donovan Mitchell, I’d start Cade Cunningham on him and be aggressive in ball screens – bring the big up, hedge hard, even trap. The goal is to force Mitchell to give the ball up and disrupt his rhythm. Over time, you hope frustration sets in and he starts forcing shots.

All three primary creators in this series are going to have stretches where they struggle. That’s why the bigs matter so much.

The X-Factor: Physicality Inside

Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley represent a potential fail point for Cleveland if they get physically overwhelmed.

Jalen Duren, in particular, has dominated this matchup. In his last two games against Cleveland, he averaged 28.5 points and grabbed 13 offensive rebounds. He’s been able to push Allen around, attack downhill, and create second-chance opportunities.

If Duren returns to that level, it completely changes the ceiling for Detroit.

On the other side, Cleveland’s bigs have responsibilities too. They need to set solid screens to create advantages for Mitchell and Harden. If they can’t free up those guards, the offense stalls.

Mobley’s jump shooting is another key. If Detroit can pack the paint and Mobley isn’t making shots, that becomes a serious issue for Cleveland’s spacing.

The Counter Moves

Mobley isn’t just a potential weakness – he’s also a potential problem for Detroit.

If he plays well enough offensively to make Ausar Thompson unplayable, Detroit loses one of its best defenders. That forces them into lineups with weaker defensive personnel, which makes life easier for Mitchell and Harden.

Detroit does have counters. One of the biggest is cleared-side action.

By positioning Ausar Thompson above the break, it pulls Mobley away from the paint. That creates space for Cade to get downhill and opens up pocket passes to Duren or shooters on the weak side.

Cleveland’s counter is to “ice” those actions – force Cade baseline instead of allowing him to get to the middle, where Mobley can be more impactful as a help defender.

That’s going to be one of the key chess matches throughout the series.

Timpf’s Prediction: Pistons in Six

I’m still picking the Pistons in six, but I think this is much closer than I initially thought.

If I were setting the line, I’d have Detroit closer to the -150 to -200 range, which suggests there may be some value on them at near even odds.

At the end of the day, I think Detroit can physically dominate Cleveland across the board. And as we’ve seen in recent playoff runs, that matters. The ability to impose physicality is one of the biggest factors in postseason basketball.

Detroit has the best player in the series, home-court advantage, and physical advantages at multiple positions.

This is going to be a close, long series. Cleveland absolutely can win.

But I lean Detroit.

As we continue our playoff series previews, this one between the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers stands out as one of the most fascinating second-round matchups.

We’re coming off a 2-2 regular season split between these teams. Joel Embiid only played in two of those games, and interestingly, the road team won both. One of those Knicks wins in Philly featured a wild subplot—Embiid fouling Karl-Anthony Towns out in just 16 minutes. That dynamic matters, because Towns’ ability to stay on the floor and space Embiid defensively could swing this series.

When Towns fouled out, the Knicks went small, putting OG Anunoby on Embiid. They leaned into speed, pulled Embiid into actions, and generated open threes by exploiting Philly’s lack of foot speed. That’s a theme we’ll keep coming back to.

The Odds and the Value Angle

According to Hard Rock Bet, the Knicks are slight favorites at -260, with the Sixers as underdogs at +210.

This is where things get interesting. I’ll get into my pick later, but just on the surface, those odds suggest a gap that might not fully reflect how close this series actually is.

The Embiid Defensive Problem

This series presents a completely different defensive challenge for Joel Embiid compared to what he just saw.

Against Boston, Embiid could sit back in drop coverage and protect the rim. That worked because Boston’s primary creators, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, struggled shooting off the dribble in those situations. That’s not the case here.

Jalen Brunson is a different type of scorer. He’s more dynamic as a pull-up shooter, more comfortable in the midrange, and craftier navigating ball screens. We saw it in the 2024 playoff matchup—Brunson averaged nearly 36 points per game and repeatedly attacked Embiid in those actions.

Now, Philly does have better personnel this time around. VJ Edgecombe brings speed at the point of attack, and Paul George is a massive upgrade defensively compared to what they had before. That gives them more tools to fight over screens and make life harder on Brunson.

But the core issue remains: if Embiid is pulled into space, the Knicks can put Philly into rotation—and that’s where they’re most vulnerable.

The Towns Factor vs. Small Ball

What makes the Knicks so tricky is their versatility.

Karl-Anthony Towns at center forces Embiid to guard the perimeter. You can’t just concede threes to Towns—if you do, you’re going to lose. That alone changes Philly’s defensive structure.

Then there’s the Knicks’ ability to go small. Lineups with guys like Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges can hold up physically while maximizing speed and spacing. That’s dangerous for a team like Philly that plays smaller guards.

At the same time, there’s a tradeoff. Embiid can punish those small lineups offensively. We’ve already seen him get deep post position against OG and either score easily or create open looks for teammates.

So it becomes a balancing act—can the Knicks stretch Embiid out enough defensively without getting punished on the other end?

The Swing Factor: Embiid’s Offensive Dominance

This is the biggest key in the series.

If Embiid can dominate Karl-Anthony Towns one-on-one—draw fouls, wear him down, force adjustments—that changes everything. It likely pushes Mitchell Robinson into a bigger role.

And while Robinson makes Embiid work more offensively, it also allows Philly to play deeper drop coverage defensively. That keeps them out of rotation, which is exactly where they want to be.

If Philly can defend two-on-two instead of scrambling, their chances of getting consistent stops go way up.

How the Knicks Can Counter

One way the Knicks can attack is through off-ball action.

We saw this concept used effectively in earlier matchups—forcing defenses to make decisions on back screens and switches. With Towns as a passing hub, they can pull Embiid away from the rim and then create cutting opportunities behind the defense.

If Philly doesn’t switch cleanly, it’s dunks. If they do switch, it can create mismatches deep in the paint.

Again, the goal is simple: keep Embiid out of position and force defensive breakdowns.

On the Other End: Embiid vs. Double Teams

Defensively, the Knicks will likely test Embiid as a passer.

We’ve seen this before—overplay his high side, send doubles from the baseline, and force him to read the floor under pressure. In past matchups, that’s led to turnovers or forced shots.

Embiid has improved in this area, especially in the last round, but this will be a major chess match. If he handles doubles well, Philly’s offense opens up. If not, the Knicks can disrupt their rhythm.

The X-Factor

Tyrese Maxey has been outstanding in this matchup—efficient, explosive, and difficult for the Knicks to contain. He averaged over 30 points in the regular season meetings and has consistently gotten to his spots.

Paul George, meanwhile, struggled in those games but is playing much better now. Expect him to be more involved, especially targeting smaller defenders.

But ultimately, this series comes down to Joel Embiid.

If Embiid can dominate offensively and force the Knicks into lineups that allow Philly to stay in drop coverage, the Sixers have a real path to control this series.

If the Knicks can consistently pull Embiid into space and create rotation, they’ll have the edge.

Jason Timpf’s 76ers vs. Knicks Pick

• Knicks in seven: +400

They’re slightly deeper, they have home-court advantage, and they’ve been a bit more physically resilient. There’s also the lingering question of Embiid’s durability over a long series.

That said, this feels like a coin flip. And that’s where the betting value comes in.

Even though I’m leaning Knicks, Sixers at +210 on Hard Rock Bet stands out as strong value. In a series this close, getting better than 2-to-1 odds on the team with the best player is hard to ignore.

The second round of the NBA Playoffs is here, and we have our first series preview between the San Antonio Spurs and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Let’s dig into it.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Season Series Recap

The Wolves actually won the season series 2-1. As is usually the case, a lot of guys missed those three regular season games.

Wemby only played in two of the games, and those were the ones that came down to the final sequence of possessions. Gobert missed one of those two games with Wemby. Devin Vassell missed both of the games that Wemby played in.

That’s just kind of a natural part of these series previews. We look at the regular season games, but there’s almost always a lot of noise that makes them kind of strange. Not to mention, the Timberwolves are down three of their top seven players if Edwards doesn’t suit up, which is another giant red flag going into this series.

Regular Season vs. Playoff Basketball

One thing that stands out every year when I do these second round previews is how big the gap is between regular season and playoff intensity.

You watch regular season film and it looks normal. Then you watch the first round and it’s a bloodbath. Then you go back to regular season games to prep for round two, and it almost feels like a joke.

I was watching one of the Spurs-Wolves games this morning, and the Spurs announcers were talking about how the Wolves were 6-4 in their last 10 and had just given up 140 points. This is the same Wolves team that just recently took one of the best offenses in the league and strangled the life out of them.

Classic regular season Wolves.

That’s the larger point – regular season basketball is really just useful for small snippets that might translate to the postseason. You have to take it with a grain of salt.

What the Close Games Showed Us

We did get two close games between these teams, which gives us a better approximation of playoff basketball.

Wemby’s rim protection was a real factor. Minnesota had to rely on a lot of pull-up jumpers down the stretch when he was on the floor.

Ant was taking tough contested mid-range shots and difficult pull-up threes. Even Jaden McDaniels’ game-winner in one of those games was a tough fadeaway in transition – a one-leg shot in the lane with Wemby recovering.

The only paint scoring Minnesota got late came from second-chance opportunities. Julius Randle had an offensive rebound where he used multiple pump fakes to create a small window for a lefty finish. There was also a Naz Reid post-up where he worked through multiple moves for a hook shot, but again, not a clean look at the rim.

For the most part, when Wemby is on the floor, he protects the rim and turns Minnesota into a pull-up shooting team.

The Anthony Edwards Factor

Ant looked comfortable getting to his spots for pull-up jump shots, with Steph Castle as the primary defender.

But we still don’t know exactly when Ant will return – or how he’ll look when he does.

His game is heavily dependent on rhythm and shot-making. Unlike someone like Giannis, who can rely on athleticism, Ant needs to be in a groove to hit those pull-up shots.

If he comes back for this series, he’s going to have to immediately hit tough jumpers. That’s a lot to ask.

When he was healthy, he did a ton of damage. He had 55 in one of the games Wemby played in, hitting pull-up three after pull-up three. In another game, he hit a huge pull-up over Castle and even won the game isolating Wemby – baiting him into overplaying the jumper and attacking downhill.

Julius Randle vs. Victor Wembanyama

The Julius Randle-Wemby matchup was fascinating.

In the game the Wolves won, Julius had some really strong ISO defensive possessions. He got underneath Wemby, used his strength and lower center of gravity, and forced him into tough shots – similar to what Aaron Gordon has done in matchups like this.

But in the game the Spurs won, Wemby had success scoring out of actions – especially pick-and-pop situations where Julius would show on the screen, creating space for Wemby to get clean looks.

This matchup comes down to whether Julius can stay attached. If he does, he can disrupt Wemby. If he gets separated, Wemby is shooting comfortably over the top.

The Gobert Question

One of the most interesting subplots is whether San Antonio can play Gobert off the floor.

If Minnesota wants to pull Wemby away from the rim, that likely means removing Gobert.

San Antonio showed counters to this in the regular season – pre-switching and keeping Wemby anchored near the rim as a help defender.

But if Gobert comes off the floor, Minnesota loses its best rim protector. That opens up opportunities for San Antonio to attack.

Shot Quality and Style of Play

San Antonio is going to have a speed advantage. Minnesota has more size on the perimeter.

If the Spurs can get to the rim while Minnesota is forced into tough jump shots, that tilts the shot quality heavily in their favor.

But if Spurs shooters like Castle cool off, Minnesota may be able to keep Gobert at the rim and turn the game into a more physical, half-court battle.

That kind of game favors Minnesota’s size and strength.

Injuries and Depth

Minnesota is compromised right now.

With injuries to key players, there’s a real chance they’re missing contributors early in the series. That puts pressure on guys like Terrence Shannon in tougher matchups, especially going against better athletes and Wemby at the rim.

Mike Conley and others can also be physically overwhelmed in certain situations.

San Antonio is healthier. Minnesota is not.

Wolves-Spurs Series Prediction

And that makes San Antonio a clear favorite for a reason. The Wolves are big underdogs.

I think the Spurs are the safer bet. I think they should be favored by this much. And I’m going to pick them to win the series in six games.

But do not make the mistake that so many others have made when it comes to this Timberwolves team – underestimate them at your own peril. They absolutely can win this series.

Even if it’s a hampered version of Ant who comes back, they have the ability to guard this team. They have the ability to physically maul them at certain positions. They have the ability to shoot over the top with their perimeter size.

And in that sense, I actually kind of think the Wolves are a nice value play at their price.

There’s a difference between a big underdog that doesn’t really have a chance and a team where it’s like, yeah, they’re the underdog, but they can absolutely win the series.

That’s where Minnesota falls.

Spurs in six – but don’t be surprised if this gets weird.

We are continuing our set of NBA Playoffs series previews today with two matchups: the Boston Celtics vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Toronto Raptors vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers. Let’s talk some basketball.

PHI-BOS & TOR-CLE Current Odds at Hard Rock Bet

• Celtics -900 / 76ers +550
• Cavs -600 / Raptors +425

The Eastern Conference first round features two matchups that, on paper, look tilted toward the betting favorites: Celtics vs. 76ers and Cavaliers vs. Raptors. And when you look at the Hard Rock Bet series prices, that expectation shows up immediately.

Boston enters as a -900 favorite against Philadelphia, with the 76ers at +550. Cleveland is a -600 favorite against Toronto, with the Raptors at +425. In both cases, I understand why the market is leaning heavily toward the higher seed.

76ers vs. Celtics breakdown

The regular-season series ended tied 2-2, but I do not think that tells us much. The first three games came in the first month of the season, and the Celtics were still working through that early rough patch. By the time these teams met again on March 1, Boston had clearly stabilized, and even without Jayson Tatum, the Celtics controlled the game.

A lot of this series comes down to Philadelphia’s ability to attack Boston’s drop coverage, especially with Tyrese Maxey. That is the swing factor. Maxey is going to have to make a lot of tough pull-up threes and win consistently in pick-and-roll. He has shown flashes of it, and one wrinkle I would like to see more of is using dribble handoffs to free him up, because he has often looked more comfortable shooting off the catch than off the dribble.

Embiid’s absence

The problem for Philly is that there are not many easy answers beyond that. If Joel Embiid does not play, which is the assumption I am working with here, the Sixers lose their most versatile counter against Boston’s defensive structure. Embiid would help as a pop threat and as a post-up option, but even if he did come back, I think the matchup gets more complicated because of what Boston can do to slower-footed bigs defensively.

Celtics strength

On the other end, Boston simply has far more ways to score. Philadelphia’s defensive system is built on aggression by bringing the big higher, digging, tagging, and trying to force turnovers, but that style plays directly into Boston’s strengths. The Celtics do not turn the ball over much, and they are one of the best spot-up teams in basketball. If they draw two defenders, the kickout is there. If they move the ball cleanly, they are going to generate better shots than Philly over and over again.

That is really the story of this matchup. Philly is relying on difficult drop-coverage shot-making. Boston is relying on a steady diet of high-quality spot-up opportunities.

That is a hard efficiency gap to close over a full series.

Jason Timpf’s 76ers vs. Celtics Pick

• Celtics in five: +210

Philadelphia’s path is pretty narrow. Maxey would need to go nuclear, Paul George and VJ Edgecombe would need to provide real support, the Sixers would need to win on the offensive glass, and Boston would need to have a few bad games.

It is possible for Philly to steal one, maybe even make things uncomfortable for a stretch, but over the course of the series, I think Boston is just too strong.

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: The Matchup Advantage Wins Out

The funny thing about this series is that Toronto went 3-0 against Cleveland in the regular season. But I take almost nothing from that, because those games came in the first six weeks of the season and the Cavs were absolutely crushed by injuries. They were not remotely the same team then that they are now.

So when I look at this matchup, I focus less on those head-to-head results and more on the overall profile of these teams.

The Raptors need to get physical

Toronto’s best chance in this series comes from physicality. If the Raptors are going to make this interesting, it has to be by pressuring Cleveland’s guards, being disruptive defensively, winning the offensive glass battle, and turning the series into a grind. Scottie Barnes would have to be dominant physically. Jakob Poeltl would have to create second chances. Cleveland would have to get uncomfortable.

There is some logic there. The Cavs have shown vulnerability at times against teams that can shove them around and make them play at a less comfortable pace.

But I do not see that holding up over a full series.

Donovan Mitchell: Locking in

Donovan Mitchell has a habit of looking a little shaky late in the regular season and then locking in once the playoffs begin. I expect that again. Cleveland, when healthy, still has a very well-built offense, especially with their finishing and spacing. And when they are whole, they can put lineups on the floor with multiple shooters you simply cannot leave open.

The bigger issue for Toronto is offensive consistency.

The Raptors are a bottom-10 three-point shooting team, and the Scottie Barnes-Jakob Poeltl frontcourt makes it easier for Cleveland to keep Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen stacked in pick-and-roll coverage. That means the Cavs can protect the rim, shrink the floor, and make Toronto score through traffic. That is where the series gets difficult for the Raptors.

Toronto does have playmaking. They move the ball well. But without reliable shooting and with questions around guard dribble penetration, especially if Immanuel Quickley is limited, that offense starts to look very fragile against a Cleveland defense that can load up at the rim.

That is why I keep coming back to the same conclusion: unless Cleveland completely folds under Toronto’s physicality, this is a really favorable half-court matchup for the Cavs.

Jason Timpf’s Raptors vs. Cavaliers Pick

• Cavaliers in six: +425

I think Toronto can make them work. I think there is enough size, activity, and defensive pressure to steal a game or two. But asking them to sustain that formula four times against a healthier, more complete Cleveland team is asking too much.

Jason Timpf’s PHI-BOS & TOR-CLE Picks

The Hard Rock Bet odds point strongly toward the favorites, and I agree with that overall read.

• Celtics (-900) vs. 76ers (+550): Celtics in five (+210)
• Cavaliers (-600) vs. Raptors (+425): Cavaliers in six (+425)

Boston has the cleaner offensive formula and the much better shot-quality outlook. Cleveland has the stronger overall roster and a matchup edge against a Toronto team that struggles to score efficiently against upper-tier competition.

We are continuing our set of NBA Playoffs series previews today with the San Antonio Spurs and the Portland Trail Blazers, so let’s talk some basketball.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Season Series

The Spurs won the season series two games to one.

Victor Wembanyama did not play in any of the three games. Steph Castle missed two of the games. Devin Vassell missed a game.

On the Blazers’ side, Jerami Grant only played in one of the three games. Jrue Holiday only played in one of the three games. Shaedon Sharpe missed a game.

So, it’s really tough to get a good feel for the matchup based on the regular season sample.

Again, Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday were a huge part of the late-game run for the Blazers to come back and beat Phoenix.

So once again, just like we’ve talked about with all of these series previews, there’s a certain amount of conjecture we have to use when evaluating what these teams will look like in a playoff setting.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Current Odds at Hard Rock Bet

Let’s look at the series prices provided by Hard Rock Bet.

San Antonio is a massive favorite at -2000, with Portland as the underdog at +900.

I don’t see any value there because I don’t think Portland can win the series, but I do think they can keep it somewhat competitive.

Why Portland Can Stay Competitive

The main reason I think Portland can keep this more competitive than expected comes down to ball handling. If you look at the heavy ball handlers in this series, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Steph Castle, De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, I think Deni Avdija is the best player in that group.

Even without Wembanyama in those regular season games, Avdija looked very comfortable against San Antonio’s perimeter defenders. He averaged 32 points per game on 64% true shooting in those matchups, scoring from all three levels.

But Wembanyama changes everything.

Without him, the Spurs posted a 117 defensive rating, well below average. With him, that number drops to 105, elite, in the 98th percentile.

That’s a completely different ballgame.

Spurs Offensive Advantage

San Antonio’s offense is built around Wembanyama’s vertical spacing. He rolls hard to the rim, creating constant pressure on the defense. For a team like Portland, especially in traditional lineups, that’s a major problem.

Whether it’s finishing at the rim, forcing help rotations, or generating corner threes, the Spurs are going to get good looks.

And defensively, Wembanyama’s presence will force Portland’s guards, Avdija, Holiday, and Scoot, into more perimeter shot-making instead of finishing at the rim.

That’s a big shift.

Portland’s Small-Ball X-Factor

The key for Portland is small ball.

At the end of the Suns game, they used a lineup of Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, and Toumani Camara. That group barely played together this season, but in limited minutes, they posted a 149 offensive rating. They spaced the floor, allowed Avdija to attack downhill, and overwhelmed Phoenix.

The key to that lineup is aggregate size.

Even without a traditional center, they still have length, strength, and athleticism across all five positions. That allows them to switch defensively, contain pick-and-roll actions, and force San Antonio into more isolation basketball.

Can Small Ball Disrupt the Spurs?

If Portland can switch ball screens and stay in front, they can limit Wembanyama’s impact as a roller. That forces San Antonio into less efficient offense: pull-up jumpers and isolation plays.

On the other end, spacing Wembanyama away from the rim creates opportunities for Avdija to attack. But it requires shooting.

Grant, Camara, and Holiday all need to hit open shots to make it work. And even then, it’s not a guaranteed solution, it’s just their best chance.

Jason Timpf’s Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Pick

• Spurs in six: +500

I don’t see much of an upset chance here, but I do think Portland can make this competitive. If you told me Portland ties the series at two before San Antonio closes it out, I wouldn’t be surprised.

This is a good first-round test for the Spurs, an opportunity to confront weaknesses and gain playoff experience. And for Portland, it’s a chance to showcase what they can do with their young core.

Overall, it should be a fun, competitive series, but one that San Antonio ultimately controls.

We are continuing our series previews with the Knicks and the Hawks today, so let’s talk some basketball.

Hawks vs. Knicks Season Series

The Knicks won the season series two to one. The road team actually won all three games.

Both teams scored well below their season averages against each other by offensive rating. Both teams also had success on the offensive glass, with a slight edge to the Knicks.

Hawks vs. Knicks Current Odds at Hard Rock Bet

Here are the NBA Playoffs series prices provided by Hard Rock Bet:

• Knicks: currently a -300 favorite
• Hawks: +230

This is the opposite of how I felt about the Wolves-Nuggets matchup.

Even though the lines are relatively similar, I actually thought Minnesota was the smarter side of that betting line. I viewed that as closer to a pick’em with a slight edge to Denver.

I feel the opposite about this matchup.

I would be genuinely shocked if the Hawks won this series. I don’t see much value on their side of the line at all.

In fact, among the series we’ve covered so far, I’d argue this is one of the safest bets to advance, right behind Houston over the Lakers given their injuries.

Why ATL-NYK Stands Out

This is the only matchup where we actually have a great recent example of both teams being relatively healthy and playing hard against each other.

We saw a really competitive game recently. It went back and forth late, with both teams making plays. Jalen Brunson ended up winning it with a tough pull-up over CJ McCollum from the right elbow.

Atlanta had their chances. I don’t think this will be a sweep, but I’m picking the Knicks in six.

But the dynamic down the stretch of that game showed why it’s so difficult for Atlanta to win four out of seven in this series.

Knicks Offense vs. Hawks Defense

Atlanta has the ability to throw high-level perimeter defenders at Jalen Brunson. Between Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, they can make him work.

But the Knicks have two primary ways to attack:

1. The Brunson–Karl-Anthony Towns two-man game
2. Targeting CJ McCollum in mismatches

Towns creates problems with his size and strength. If you don’t close out, he hits threes. If you close out hard, he drives and wins the leverage battle to get to the rim.

Brunson, meanwhile, showed late in that last matchup that he can create separation even against elite defenders, especially using dribble handoffs to fight through pressure and get clean looks.

When Atlanta tries to avoid switches, the Knicks just re-screen or manipulate matchups early in possessions to get the defender they want.

And once Brunson gets a matchup he likes, he’s comfortable attacking one-on-one.

Hawks Offensive Strategy

Atlanta did a solid job attacking the Knicks’ weaknesses, especially targeting Brunson and Towns. They were able to generate good looks, get downhill, and create opportunities.

But the Knicks have defensive flexibility.

With OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges, they can switch a lot of actions and neutralize many of Atlanta’s preferred sets. That forces players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker into more responsibility as a primary creator.

And that’s where the gap shows.

Brunson has years of experience as a primary ball handler in high-leverage situations. It’s difficult to ask Atlanta’s creators to match that level of execution consistently across a full series.

The Deciding Factor for Hawks-Knicks

Both teams will attack each other’s weak points.

• Atlanta: Go after Brunson and Towns
• New York: Target CJ McCollum and Onyeka Okongwu

But when things break down late, when defenses tighten and possessions slow down, Brunson becomes the trump card. He has the experience, the shot creation, and the ability to score even against elite defenders.

That’s the difference in this matchup.

Jason Timpf’s Hawks vs. Knicks Pick

• Knicks in six: +425

Atlanta will likely steal a game or two, whether through transition opportunities or hot shooting nights. But asking them to win four out of seven against a team with Brunson’s level of control and experience is a tall order.

That gap in top-end talent and late-game execution is just too difficult to overcome.