MLB Home Run Picks Today: Three Expert HR Predictions for Monday (June 29)

Happy Monday! We’re back with MLB home run picks for June 29 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s kick off a new week with three power bats I love on tonight’s slate.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, June 29

• Jackson Chourio +375 (Reds at Brewers – 7:40 p.m. ET)

• Yordan Alvarez +220 (Twins at Astros – 8:10 p.m. ET)

• Manny Machado +220 (Padres at Cubs – 8:05 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Jackson Chourio

We’ll start with Jackson Chourio as the Reds visit the Brewers at 7:40 p.m. ET. Nick Lodolo is set to hit the rubber for Cincinnati on Monday night, and he’s been downright miserable this season after a blister delayed the start to his year.

Specifically against right-handed hitters, Lodolo is allowing a .222 expected ISO, and his advanced metrics aren’t pretty either. He carries a 6.06 expected ERA, ranking in just the 35th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 43rd percentile in hard-hit rate.

Chourio, on the other hand, has been scorching hot in June with nine home runs this month and a .639 slugging percentage. Overall against lefties this year — admittedly a small sample — he owns a .259 ISO. I think his +375 odds on Hard Rock Bet are very generous against a pitcher who has yet to show he’s anywhere close to 100%.

MLB Home Run Pick: Yordan Alvarez

Next, we’ll go with Yordan Alvarez as the Astros host the Twins at 8:10 p.m. ET. Alvarez is +220 to go deep, and I’d argue he should be well inside +200 at this point of the season.

If you’ve kept up with this series, you know Zebby Matthews is someone I’ve been high on for the long term. He’s on the bump tonight against the Astros, but he just hasn’t been able to put it together at the MLB level.

Matthews has allowed .213 ISO to left-handed hitters this year, which is basically in line with his expected ISO, so the struggles are real. Additionally, he isn’t keeping the ball on the ground, ranking in just the 9th percentile in ground-ball rate allowed, according to Baseball Savant.

An underrated angle of this bet is that Matthews doesn’t walk hitters, and walks do us no good when we’re chasing home runs, so Alvarez should be in a spot to take some hacks.

Alvarez, meanwhile, has been superhuman this season with a .308 ISO in 2026, and his expected ISO is even higher at .381 against right-handed pitching. His under-the-hood metrics look fictional, ranking among the elite in pretty much every category that matters.

Yordan has 25 home runs on the year, 17 against righties alone, with a .621 slugging percentage. At +220, he’s looking really good tonight.

MLB Home Run Pick: Manny Machado

We’ll close at Wrigley Field as the Cubs host the Padres at 8:05 p.m. ET, and I’m looking at Manny Machado to go deep at +220. Machado has been pretty miserable this season, but the power is still there. He even went mini-viral for a rant against baseball analytics. Maybe Josh Hart should take note that it’s a losing battle in the year 2026.

Anyway, Machado will square off against Shota Imanaga, who is still giving up power to both sides of the plate, yielding an ISO well above .200 to each side. Machado owns a .229 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Power has historically never been an issue for him, and even in a down year he has 15 home runs — well on pace for roughly 30.

The weather is the big story here. Wrigley is one of the most weather-sensitive ballparks in baseball, and temperatures are projected to be in the high 80s with strong winds blowing out anywhere from 12 to 15 mph. It should be a launching pad tonight.

MLB Home Run Notes for Monday, June 29

A few more things to keep in mind for your home run bets today:

• Trust the weather at Wrigley: Kevin Roth is, in my opinion, the best meteorologist in the industry, and he notes the ball should be “flying” tonight on his Prop Finder weather report.

• Cubs bats are in play: According to MLB.com, the Padres haven’t announced a starting pitcher yet. If it’s an uninspiring offering, it could be well worth targeting some Cubs hitters. Jackson Merrill is my honorable mention for the Padres.

• Sacramento heat: The Athletics are back at Sutter Health Park with awesome hitting weather and temperatures in the high 80s. Eric Lauer, a southpaw who gives up a ton of righty power, is set to start for the Dodgers. Shea Langeliers’ odds are inside 2-to-1, which I don’t want to bet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the ball flies on both sides. Nick Kurtz is always a home run candidate. Langeliers is the best bat in this one if you can stomach the odds.

• Coors watch: As of Monday morning, the Rockies have not announced a starting pitcher, per MLB.com. It’s worth a look at some Marlins bats in Colorado, where rookie Owen Caissie has really turned it on lately.

Good luck!